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Polynomial forecast or Seasonal trend detection

Excel Help for Polynomial Forecast Or Seasonal Trend Detection in Excel Multiple Regression Analysis and Forecasting Template


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Polynomial Forecast Or Seasonal Trend Detection

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ConfusedYou could either:
  1. Run a multiple regression with the 3 data sets as independent variables and this years data set as the dependent variable and then run a polynomial forecast to keep the seasonal trends of the 3 independent businesses in the forecast.
  2. For a more complex, but accurate method, detect the seasonality within the 3 independent datasets combined and then apply this trend to a linear forecast of the dependent dataset. Several methods exist to detect seasonal trends in time series data.  One popular method is X-12-ARIMA which is freely available as a Window executable from the U.S. Census Bureau at http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/x12down_pc.html.
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