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Results Probability

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Results Probability

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ConfusedI can't seem to get the probability score to go higher than 61%.....any reason why this is?  What significance level is this using?

John
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Shocked
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If your return distribution can be negative, you should try to put a negative return to see if it increases the probability.
 Excel Business Forums Administrator
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Surprised
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The monte carlo analysis is based on 95% level of confidence. 

The probability percentage depends on the target return rate - i.e. the lower the rate, the higher the probability will be of achieving it in the optimal portfolio.
 Excel Business Forums Administrator
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Confused
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thanks for the answer...but why is it when I put a target number less than the mean (that it calculated) that I can not get a higher success % than say 61%.  I would think that I should be able to find a target that would give me 96% success.  I even tried to put in .01 for target and still can't move it higher....

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