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Forecasting with Seasonal Trends

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Forecasting With Seasonal Trends

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ConfusedI have (3) data sets (each one from independent businesses like mine) for last year, where they enter a seasonal change of business in the next month. I have 1 data set for this year, leading up to this change. How can I use last year's data sets to forecast the expected seasonal change, dependent upon last year's seasonal impact?
 Mike Schoonmaker
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ConfusedYou could either:
  1. Run a multiple regression with the 3 data sets as independent variables and this years data set as the dependent variable and then run a polynomial forecast to keep the seasonal trends of the 3 independent businesses in the forecast.
  2. For a more complex, but accurate method, detect the seasonality within the 3 independent datasets combined and then apply this trend to a linear forecast of the dependent dataset. Several methods exist to detect seasonal trends in time series data.  One popular method is X-12-ARIMA which is freely available as a Window executable from the U.S. Census Bureau at http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/x12down_pc.html.
 Excel Business Forums Administrator
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